Idaho’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Russ Fulcher secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning him as the clear general election favorite against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. July polling showed Fulcher ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s voting history and low Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3 general election approaching, traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory based on these structural factors. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
3%
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$32,566 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$15,643 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Russ Fulcher secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning him as the clear general election favorite against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. July polling showed Fulcher ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s voting history and low Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3 general election approaching, traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory based on these structural factors. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Russ Fulcher secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning him as the clear general election favorite against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. July polling showed Fulcher ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s voting history and low Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3 general election approaching, traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory based on these structural factors. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Russ Fulcher secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning him as the clear general election favorite against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. July polling showed Fulcher ahead by double digits, consistent with the seat’s voting history and low Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3 general election approaching, traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory based on these structural factors. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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