Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 12th Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote, facing only token opposition in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+21 partisan voter index reflects consistent strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles, centered in areas such as Dearborn and parts of Wayne and Oakland counties. Republican nominee James Hooper advanced unopposed but confronts structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration. Trader consensus pricing at 95.8 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for safe seats. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's partisan baseline in comparable cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-12 House Election Winner
MI-12 House Election Winner
$39,214 Vol.
$39,214 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$39,214 Vol.
$39,214 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,751 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$17,463 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 12th Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote, facing only token opposition in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+21 partisan voter index reflects consistent strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles, centered in areas such as Dearborn and parts of Wayne and Oakland counties. Republican nominee James Hooper advanced unopposed but confronts structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration. Trader consensus pricing at 95.8 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for safe seats. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's partisan baseline in comparable cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$39,214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 12th Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote, facing only token opposition in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+21 partisan voter index reflects consistent strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles, centered in areas such as Dearborn and parts of Wayne and Oakland counties. Republican nominee James Hooper advanced unopposed but confronts structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration. Trader consensus pricing at 95.8 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for safe seats. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's partisan baseline in comparable cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 12th Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote, facing only token opposition in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's D+21 partisan voter index reflects consistent strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles, centered in areas such as Dearborn and parts of Wayne and Oakland counties. Republican nominee James Hooper advanced unopposed but confronts structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration. Trader consensus pricing at 95.8 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for safe seats. Potential shifts could stem from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's partisan baseline in comparable cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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