Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead in popular support around 29 percent, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 23-24 percent and the Parti Libéral du Québec near 20-22 percent, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec and Québec solidaire further back. This distribution, combined with the PQ’s stronger concentration among francophone voters and in key ridings outside Montreal, underpins trader consensus that the party is positioned to secure the most seats in the October 5 election. The CAQ’s modest rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed the gap but not displaced the frontrunner, while the election call and ongoing debates over immigration, sovereignty timing, and economic pressures have kept voter intentions relatively stable in early September. Projections from multiple models assign the PQ an 80-89 percent implied probability of winning a plurality, though a majority government remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 75%
CAQ 25%
PLQ 2.4%
PCQ <1%
$894,080 Vol.
$894,080 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
75%
CAQ
25%
PLQ
2%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 75%
CAQ 25%
PLQ 2.4%
PCQ <1%
$894,080 Vol.
$894,080 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$121,282 Vol.
75%
CAQ
$137,497 Vol.
25%
PLQ
$123,958 Vol.
2%
PCQ
$247,297 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead in popular support around 29 percent, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 23-24 percent and the Parti Libéral du Québec near 20-22 percent, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec and Québec solidaire further back. This distribution, combined with the PQ’s stronger concentration among francophone voters and in key ridings outside Montreal, underpins trader consensus that the party is positioned to secure the most seats in the October 5 election. The CAQ’s modest rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed the gap but not displaced the frontrunner, while the election call and ongoing debates over immigration, sovereignty timing, and economic pressures have kept voter intentions relatively stable in early September. Projections from multiple models assign the PQ an 80-89 percent implied probability of winning a plurality, though a majority government remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$894,080End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead in popular support around 29 percent, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 23-24 percent and the Parti Libéral du Québec near 20-22 percent, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec and Québec solidaire further back. This distribution, combined with the PQ’s stronger concentration among francophone voters and in key ridings outside Montreal, underpins trader consensus that the party is positioned to secure the most seats in the October 5 election. The CAQ’s modest rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed the gap but not displaced the frontrunner, while the election call and ongoing debates over immigration, sovereignty timing, and economic pressures have kept voter intentions relatively stable in early September. Projections from multiple models assign the PQ an 80-89 percent implied probability of winning a plurality, though a majority government remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$894,080End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead in popular support around 29 percent, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 23-24 percent and the Parti Libéral du Québec near 20-22 percent, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec and Québec solidaire further back. This distribution, combined with the PQ’s stronger concentration among francophone voters and in key ridings outside Montreal, underpins trader consensus that the party is positioned to secure the most seats in the October 5 election. The CAQ’s modest rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed the gap but not displaced the frontrunner, while the election call and ongoing debates over immigration, sovereignty timing, and economic pressures have kept voter intentions relatively stable in early September. Projections from multiple models assign the PQ an 80-89 percent implied probability of winning a plurality, though a majority government remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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