Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat's consistent Republican lean and his multiple prior victories by double-digit margins. The southeastern Wisconsin district, encompassing areas like Kenosha, Racine, and Janesville, favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential contest by roughly four to six points, aligning with Steil's strong incumbency record since succeeding Paul Ryan. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general election polling, including one Democratic internal survey showing a near tie, has not shifted the broader consensus amid the district's structural advantages for the GOP. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for national conditions or turnout patterns to influence the outcome, though no major late-breaking developments have altered positioning to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-01 House Election Winner
WI-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,290 Vol.
69%
Democratic Party
$4,700 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat's consistent Republican lean and his multiple prior victories by double-digit margins. The southeastern Wisconsin district, encompassing areas like Kenosha, Racine, and Janesville, favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential contest by roughly four to six points, aligning with Steil's strong incumbency record since succeeding Paul Ryan. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general election polling, including one Democratic internal survey showing a near tie, has not shifted the broader consensus amid the district's structural advantages for the GOP. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for national conditions or turnout patterns to influence the outcome, though no major late-breaking developments have altered positioning to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$9,991End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat's consistent Republican lean and his multiple prior victories by double-digit margins. The southeastern Wisconsin district, encompassing areas like Kenosha, Racine, and Janesville, favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential contest by roughly four to six points, aligning with Steil's strong incumbency record since succeeding Paul Ryan. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general election polling, including one Democratic internal survey showing a near tie, has not shifted the broader consensus amid the district's structural advantages for the GOP. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for national conditions or turnout patterns to influence the outcome, though no major late-breaking developments have altered positioning to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,991End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat's consistent Republican lean and his multiple prior victories by double-digit margins. The southeastern Wisconsin district, encompassing areas like Kenosha, Racine, and Janesville, favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential contest by roughly four to six points, aligning with Steil's strong incumbency record since succeeding Paul Ryan. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general election polling, including one Democratic internal survey showing a near tie, has not shifted the broader consensus amid the district's structural advantages for the GOP. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for national conditions or turnout patterns to influence the outcome, though no major late-breaking developments have altered positioning to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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