Redistricting has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with partisan voter index ratings around D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic lean. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Robb Tucker, benefiting from strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand, and consistent endorsements from state Democratic organizations. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the general election as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national political realignment altering turnout patterns before the November 3 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Ami Bera (D)
95%
Robb Tucker (R)
3%
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Ami Bera (D)
$25,885 Vol.
95%
Robb Tucker (R)
$17,619 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with partisan voter index ratings around D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic lean. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Robb Tucker, benefiting from strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand, and consistent endorsements from state Democratic organizations. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the general election as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national political realignment altering turnout patterns before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$43,504Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with partisan voter index ratings around D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic lean. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Robb Tucker, benefiting from strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand, and consistent endorsements from state Democratic organizations. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the general election as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national political realignment altering turnout patterns before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,504Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with partisan voter index ratings around D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic lean. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Robb Tucker, benefiting from strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million in cash on hand, and consistent endorsements from state Democratic organizations. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the general election as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unanticipated national political realignment altering turnout patterns before the November 3 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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