Hawaii’s 2026 gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery remains low-salience following easy August primaries, producing closely matched trader views on total ballots around 370,000–430,000. Historical midterm turnout in the state has hovered near 277,000 in 2022, while the 2024 presidential cycle reached higher levels, and Hawaii’s heavy reliance on mail voting plus limited campaign intensity keep expectations anchored in that range. With no competitive statewide races or major late-breaking developments to boost participation, the market stays tight; stronger Democratic or Republican get-out-the-vote efforts, unexpected weather impacts on ballot returns, or shifts in registered voter engagement could push totals toward one bin or another before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHawaii Governor Election: Turnout
Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout
400K-430K 44.6%
370K-400K 39%
430K-460K 13%
340K-370K 2.1%
$10,307 ปริมาณ
$10,307 ปริมาณ
<310K
<1%
310K-340K
<1%
340K-370K
2%
370K-400K
39%
400K-430K
45%
430K-460K
13%
460K-490K
<1%
490K+
<1%
400K-430K 44.6%
370K-400K 39%
430K-460K 13%
340K-370K 2.1%
$10,307 ปริมาณ
$10,307 ปริมาณ
<310K
<1%
310K-340K
<1%
340K-370K
2%
370K-400K
39%
400K-430K
45%
430K-460K
13%
460K-490K
<1%
490K+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Hawaii’s 2026 gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery remains low-salience following easy August primaries, producing closely matched trader views on total ballots around 370,000–430,000. Historical midterm turnout in the state has hovered near 277,000 in 2022, while the 2024 presidential cycle reached higher levels, and Hawaii’s heavy reliance on mail voting plus limited campaign intensity keep expectations anchored in that range. With no competitive statewide races or major late-breaking developments to boost participation, the market stays tight; stronger Democratic or Republican get-out-the-vote efforts, unexpected weather impacts on ballot returns, or shifts in registered voter engagement could push totals toward one bin or another before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 10,500,000 and 11,000,000?
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