The open gubernatorial contest in Tennessee, with term-limited Republican Bill Lee exiting the race, serves as the main catalyst elevating expected turnout in the November 3 Senate election above typical midterm levels for the state. Traders have priced the 1.8M-2M and 2M-2.2M brackets nearly even because the governor's race historically lifts participation by several points while the solidly Republican matchup between incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw generates limited statewide mobilization. Recent primary results and the sole available general election poll showing a wide Hagerty lead reinforce this equilibrium. Early voting data, absentee ballot trends, and get-out-the-vote intensity in the final weeks could shift probabilities if they deviate from historical midterm patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTennessee Senate Election: Turnout
Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout
2M-2.2M 40%
1.8M-2M 36.5%
1.6M-1.8M 18.4%
2.2M-2.4M 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<1.6M
1%
1.6M-1.8M
18%
1.8M-2M
37%
2M-2.2M
40%
2.2M-2.4M
9%
2.4M-2.6M
4%
2.6M+
1%
2M-2.2M 40%
1.8M-2M 36.5%
1.6M-1.8M 18.4%
2.2M-2.4M 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<1.6M
$1,087 ปริมาณ
1%
1.6M-1.8M
$1,744 ปริมาณ
18%
1.8M-2M
$1,739 ปริมาณ
37%
2M-2.2M
$1,557 ปริมาณ
40%
2.2M-2.4M
$767 ปริมาณ
9%
2.4M-2.6M
$781 ปริมาณ
4%
2.6M+
$1,433 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open gubernatorial contest in Tennessee, with term-limited Republican Bill Lee exiting the race, serves as the main catalyst elevating expected turnout in the November 3 Senate election above typical midterm levels for the state. Traders have priced the 1.8M-2M and 2M-2.2M brackets nearly even because the governor's race historically lifts participation by several points while the solidly Republican matchup between incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw generates limited statewide mobilization. Recent primary results and the sole available general election poll showing a wide Hagerty lead reinforce this equilibrium. Early voting data, absentee ballot trends, and get-out-the-vote intensity in the final weeks could shift probabilities if they deviate from historical midterm patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,108วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open gubernatorial contest in Tennessee, with term-limited Republican Bill Lee exiting the race, serves as the main catalyst elevating expected turnout in the November 3 Senate election above typical midterm levels for the state. Traders have priced the 1.8M-2M and 2M-2.2M brackets nearly even because the governor's race historically lifts participation by several points while the solidly Republican matchup between incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw generates limited statewide mobilization. Recent primary results and the sole available general election poll showing a wide Hagerty lead reinforce this equilibrium. Early voting data, absentee ballot trends, and get-out-the-vote intensity in the final weeks could shift probabilities if they deviate from historical midterm patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,108วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The open gubernatorial contest in Tennessee, with term-limited Republican Bill Lee exiting the race, serves as the main catalyst elevating expected turnout in the November 3 Senate election above typical midterm levels for the state. Traders have priced the 1.8M-2M and 2M-2.2M brackets nearly even because the governor's race historically lifts participation by several points while the solidly Republican matchup between incumbent Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw generates limited statewide mobilization. Recent primary results and the sole available general election poll showing a wide Hagerty lead reinforce this equilibrium. Early voting data, absentee ballot trends, and get-out-the-vote intensity in the final weeks could shift probabilities if they deviate from historical midterm patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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