Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
30-34 26.0%
25-29 25%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
20%
25-29
25%
30-34
26%
35-39
18%
40+
10%
30-34 26.0%
25-29 25%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$338 Vol.
20%
25-29
$1,121 Vol.
25%
30-34
$461 Vol.
26%
35-39
$324 Vol.
18%
40+
$164 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$2,408End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$2,408End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the July 20 blockade declaration have kept Bab el-Mandeb daily transits fluctuating near 30–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis ~60–70 baseline, with AIS data showing weekly volumes stabilizing around 223–269 crossings amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value. Partial recovery in Suez Canal traffic to four-week highs near 1,090 movements, driven by MSC, Maersk, and other carriers routing select Asia-Europe services back through the strait, supports trader consensus around the 25–34 range, while tanker-specific flows remain pressured by selective targeting and dark transits. The tight spread across leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether September volumes will hold near August levels or face further contraction if attacks escalate, with commodity flows and freight rates serving as key swing indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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