Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive People’s Liberation Army purges has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership intact and without visible challenges to his position. Official announcements have framed recent removals of senior generals, including Central Military Commission figures, as corruption or discipline cases, with no confirmed coup plotting or armed resistance materializing despite earlier speculation. The opaque, hierarchical structure of the party-state, combined with loyalty mechanisms and preemptive investigations, underpins trader consensus that no attempt will occur before the 2027 party congress. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential succession pressures if Xi faces sudden health issues or if factional tensions escalate undetected in the final months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$155,308 Vol.
$155,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$155,308 Vol.
$155,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive People’s Liberation Army purges has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership intact and without visible challenges to his position. Official announcements have framed recent removals of senior generals, including Central Military Commission figures, as corruption or discipline cases, with no confirmed coup plotting or armed resistance materializing despite earlier speculation. The opaque, hierarchical structure of the party-state, combined with loyalty mechanisms and preemptive investigations, underpins trader consensus that no attempt will occur before the 2027 party congress. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential succession pressures if Xi faces sudden health issues or if factional tensions escalate undetected in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,308End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive People’s Liberation Army purges has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership intact and without visible challenges to his position. Official announcements have framed recent removals of senior generals, including Central Military Commission figures, as corruption or discipline cases, with no confirmed coup plotting or armed resistance materializing despite earlier speculation. The opaque, hierarchical structure of the party-state, combined with loyalty mechanisms and preemptive investigations, underpins trader consensus that no attempt will occur before the 2027 party congress. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential succession pressures if Xi faces sudden health issues or if factional tensions escalate undetected in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,308End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive People’s Liberation Army purges has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership intact and without visible challenges to his position. Official announcements have framed recent removals of senior generals, including Central Military Commission figures, as corruption or discipline cases, with no confirmed coup plotting or armed resistance materializing despite earlier speculation. The opaque, hierarchical structure of the party-state, combined with loyalty mechanisms and preemptive investigations, underpins trader consensus that no attempt will occur before the 2027 party congress. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential succession pressures if Xi faces sudden health issues or if factional tensions escalate undetected in the final months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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