**Professora Dorinha leads the Tocantins gubernatorial race with consistent polling advantages heading into the October 4 first round.** Recent surveys, including a late August Quaest poll showing her at 37% versus Vicentinho Júnior at 28%, and earlier Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data results placing her ahead or in technical ties in first-round scenarios, have shaped trader views. Vicentinho Júnior trails at roughly 28-33% across multiple institutes, while Laurez Moreira, Ataídes de Oliveira, and lower-polling names such as Du Pereira, Prof. Witer Naves, and Subtenente Luiz Carlos register single-digit or minimal support. Second-round simulations remain close, often within margins of error, underscoring the competitive nature of any runoff on October 25. Ongoing campaign stops emphasizing agroindustry incentives, rural security, and local infrastructure have not produced major shifts in recent weeks. The implied probabilities reflect this polling hierarchy and the absence of decisive late developments altering the frontrunner status.