Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 due to entrenched economic interdependence under USMCA, routine bilateral security cooperation on migration and cartel enforcement, and the absence of any territorial or regime-change disputes that would justify military action. Both governments maintain active diplomatic channels, joint task forces, and trade volumes exceeding $800 billion annually, while U.S. defense priorities remain centered on peer competitors and existing alliances rather than North American neighbors. Historical precedent shows no modern U.S. administration contemplating full-scale invasion of Mexico, and domestic political, legal, and international constraints further reduce feasibility. Late-breaking scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented cross-border crisis triggering congressional authorization or a rapid deterioration in relations, though such developments would need to overcome multiple institutional and alliance barriers within the calendar year.