Midterm election dynamics and the relative competitiveness of the Kansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are the primary drivers behind trader positioning on turnout. Historical patterns show Kansas midterm participation typically falls well below presidential-year levels, with 2022 producing roughly 47.6% turnout among eligible voters. Recent polling averages place Marshall ahead by 2–5 points in a race rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters, a margin that may modestly elevate engagement without reaching presidential-year intensity. A September 15 visit by Vice President JD Vance underscores Republican focus on base mobilization, while Hamilton’s fundraising strength and primary win could support Democratic participation. These factors align with market consensus centering on the 1.1M–1.2M range as the most probable outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วKansas Senate Election: Turnout
Kansas Senate Election: Turnout
1.1M-1.2M 44%
1M-1.1M 30%
900K-1M 11%
1.2M+ 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<800K
<1%
800K-900K
6%
900K-1M
14%
1M-1.1M
30%
1.1M-1.2M
44%
1.2M+
8%
1.1M-1.2M 44%
1M-1.1M 30%
900K-1M 11%
1.2M+ 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
<800K
$983 ปริมาณ
<1%
800K-900K
$121 ปริมาณ
6%
900K-1M
$66 ปริมาณ
14%
1M-1.1M
$65 ปริมาณ
30%
1.1M-1.2M
$1,769 ปริมาณ
44%
1.2M+
$725 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Midterm election dynamics and the relative competitiveness of the Kansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are the primary drivers behind trader positioning on turnout. Historical patterns show Kansas midterm participation typically falls well below presidential-year levels, with 2022 producing roughly 47.6% turnout among eligible voters. Recent polling averages place Marshall ahead by 2–5 points in a race rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters, a margin that may modestly elevate engagement without reaching presidential-year intensity. A September 15 visit by Vice President JD Vance underscores Republican focus on base mobilization, while Hamilton’s fundraising strength and primary win could support Democratic participation. These factors align with market consensus centering on the 1.1M–1.2M range as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,729วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Midterm election dynamics and the relative competitiveness of the Kansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are the primary drivers behind trader positioning on turnout. Historical patterns show Kansas midterm participation typically falls well below presidential-year levels, with 2022 producing roughly 47.6% turnout among eligible voters. Recent polling averages place Marshall ahead by 2–5 points in a race rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters, a margin that may modestly elevate engagement without reaching presidential-year intensity. A September 15 visit by Vice President JD Vance underscores Republican focus on base mobilization, while Hamilton’s fundraising strength and primary win could support Democratic participation. These factors align with market consensus centering on the 1.1M–1.2M range as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,729วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Midterm election dynamics and the relative competitiveness of the Kansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are the primary drivers behind trader positioning on turnout. Historical patterns show Kansas midterm participation typically falls well below presidential-year levels, with 2022 producing roughly 47.6% turnout among eligible voters. Recent polling averages place Marshall ahead by 2–5 points in a race rated Likely Republican by multiple forecasters, a margin that may modestly elevate engagement without reaching presidential-year intensity. A September 15 visit by Vice President JD Vance underscores Republican focus on base mobilization, while Hamilton’s fundraising strength and primary win could support Democratic participation. These factors align with market consensus centering on the 1.1M–1.2M range as the most probable outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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