Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 7th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, her decisive 2025 special election victory by roughly 40 points, and uncontested primaries that preserved resources for the general election. The district’s voter registration advantage and history of large Democratic margins in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around her reelection on November 3. Butierez, the Republican nominee who previously lost to Grijalva and her late father, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited path in a seat rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national partisan shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Adelita Grijalva (D)
96%
Daniel Butierez (R)
5%
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Adelita Grijalva (D)
$5,800 Vol.
96%
Daniel Butierez (R)
$26,980 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 7th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, her decisive 2025 special election victory by roughly 40 points, and uncontested primaries that preserved resources for the general election. The district’s voter registration advantage and history of large Democratic margins in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around her reelection on November 3. Butierez, the Republican nominee who previously lost to Grijalva and her late father, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited path in a seat rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national partisan shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,780End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 7th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, her decisive 2025 special election victory by roughly 40 points, and uncontested primaries that preserved resources for the general election. The district’s voter registration advantage and history of large Democratic margins in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around her reelection on November 3. Butierez, the Republican nominee who previously lost to Grijalva and her late father, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited path in a seat rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national partisan shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,780End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 7th congressional district race due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, her decisive 2025 special election victory by roughly 40 points, and uncontested primaries that preserved resources for the general election. The district’s voter registration advantage and history of large Democratic margins in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around her reelection on November 3. Butierez, the Republican nominee who previously lost to Grijalva and her late father, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited path in a seat rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national partisan shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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