Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in Missouri’s 1st District with a decisive August 2026 primary victory over former Representative Cori Bush, positioning the incumbent to defend a seat with a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+29. The St. Louis-based district has delivered consistent Democratic general election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have historically limited GOP viability. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharply altered national environment could theoretically narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$36,818 Vol.
$36,818 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$36,818 Vol.
$36,818 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$22,847 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$13,971 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in Missouri’s 1st District with a decisive August 2026 primary victory over former Representative Cori Bush, positioning the incumbent to defend a seat with a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+29. The St. Louis-based district has delivered consistent Democratic general election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have historically limited GOP viability. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharply altered national environment could theoretically narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,818End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in Missouri’s 1st District with a decisive August 2026 primary victory over former Representative Cori Bush, positioning the incumbent to defend a seat with a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+29. The St. Louis-based district has delivered consistent Democratic general election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have historically limited GOP viability. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharply altered national environment could theoretically narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,818End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in Missouri’s 1st District with a decisive August 2026 primary victory over former Representative Cori Bush, positioning the incumbent to defend a seat with a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+29. The St. Louis-based district has delivered consistent Democratic general election margins above 70 percent in recent cycles, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Paul Berry, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have historically limited GOP viability. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic outcome reflects these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharply altered national environment could theoretically narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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