Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana's open Senate seat due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal elections and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines' late withdrawal and endorsement. Alme secured the nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary and maintains double-digit advantages in multi-candidate polling against independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. The split in non-Republican support limits consolidation for either challenger, aligning with forecaster ratings of Solid or Likely Republican and the 91.5 percent trader-implied probability. A withdrawal by one opposition candidate or unexpected late developments could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 92%
Independent 8.8%
Democrat <1%
$117,843 Vol.
$117,843 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
92%
Independent
9%
Democrat
1%
Republican 92%
Independent 8.8%
Democrat <1%
$117,843 Vol.
$117,843 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$59,550 Vol.
92%
Independent
$17,862 Vol.
9%
Democrat
$40,432 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana's open Senate seat due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal elections and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines' late withdrawal and endorsement. Alme secured the nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary and maintains double-digit advantages in multi-candidate polling against independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. The split in non-Republican support limits consolidation for either challenger, aligning with forecaster ratings of Solid or Likely Republican and the 91.5 percent trader-implied probability. A withdrawal by one opposition candidate or unexpected late developments could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$117,843End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana's open Senate seat due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal elections and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines' late withdrawal and endorsement. Alme secured the nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary and maintains double-digit advantages in multi-candidate polling against independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. The split in non-Republican support limits consolidation for either challenger, aligning with forecaster ratings of Solid or Likely Republican and the 91.5 percent trader-implied probability. A withdrawal by one opposition candidate or unexpected late developments could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$117,843End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana's open Senate seat due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in recent federal elections and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines' late withdrawal and endorsement. Alme secured the nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary and maintains double-digit advantages in multi-candidate polling against independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead. The split in non-Republican support limits consolidation for either challenger, aligning with forecaster ratings of Solid or Likely Republican and the 91.5 percent trader-implied probability. A withdrawal by one opposition candidate or unexpected late developments could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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