Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional mechanisms and de-escalation frameworks that traders view as likely to produce a tariff agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended many reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting created the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side. USTR has solicited public input on tariff relief for non-sensitive imports, and both governments have advanced related commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth supply chains, and aircraft acquisitions. Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2026 have remained within agreed ceilings, with further bilateral consultations underway ahead of a planned September summit. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum toward managed adjustments rather than renewed escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% chance
$241,044 Vol.
$241,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
89% chance
$241,044 Vol.
$241,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional mechanisms and de-escalation frameworks that traders view as likely to produce a tariff agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended many reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting created the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side. USTR has solicited public input on tariff relief for non-sensitive imports, and both governments have advanced related commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth supply chains, and aircraft acquisitions. Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2026 have remained within agreed ceilings, with further bilateral consultations underway ahead of a planned September summit. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum toward managed adjustments rather than renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$241,044End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional mechanisms and de-escalation frameworks that traders view as likely to produce a tariff agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended many reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting created the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side. USTR has solicited public input on tariff relief for non-sensitive imports, and both governments have advanced related commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth supply chains, and aircraft acquisitions. Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2026 have remained within agreed ceilings, with further bilateral consultations underway ahead of a planned September summit. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum toward managed adjustments rather than renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$241,044End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional mechanisms and de-escalation frameworks that traders view as likely to produce a tariff agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended many reciprocal tariffs through November 2026, while the May 2026 Trump-Xi meeting created the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side. USTR has solicited public input on tariff relief for non-sensitive imports, and both governments have advanced related commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth supply chains, and aircraft acquisitions. Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2026 have remained within agreed ceilings, with further bilateral consultations underway ahead of a planned September summit. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum toward managed adjustments rather than renewed escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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