Recent redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 9th District boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning voters from the East Bay while removing Republican-leaning areas in the Central Valley, creating a double-digit registration advantage. Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field and holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4 million in cash on hand. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as safe or solidly Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the outcome. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still alter the result before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョシュ・ハーダー（民主党）
94%
ジョン・マクブライド（共和党）
6%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョシュ・ハーダー（民主党）
$13,285 Vol.
94%
ジョン・マクブライド（共和党）
$7,309 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 9th District boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning voters from the East Bay while removing Republican-leaning areas in the Central Valley, creating a double-digit registration advantage. Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field and holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4 million in cash on hand. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as safe or solidly Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the outcome. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still alter the result before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$20,593終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 9th District boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning voters from the East Bay while removing Republican-leaning areas in the Central Valley, creating a double-digit registration advantage. Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field and holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4 million in cash on hand. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as safe or solidly Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the outcome. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still alter the result before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,593終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 9th District boundaries to incorporate more Democratic-leaning voters from the East Bay while removing Republican-leaning areas in the Central Valley, creating a double-digit registration advantage. Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder advanced from the June primary with over 60 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field and holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $4 million in cash on hand. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as safe or solidly Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the outcome. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still alter the result before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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