Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the nomination without primary opposition in June 2026 for Montana's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The eastern Montana district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by Downing's 65.7% general-election margin in 2024, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. Democratic nominee Brian Miller advanced from a low-profile primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Late developments such as national midterm swings, turnout surges, or candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make a Democratic upset unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$45,338 Vol.
$45,338 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
95%
民主党
5%
$45,338 Vol.
$45,338 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$26,444 Vol.
95%
民主党
$18,894 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the nomination without primary opposition in June 2026 for Montana's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The eastern Montana district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by Downing's 65.7% general-election margin in 2024, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. Democratic nominee Brian Miller advanced from a low-profile primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Late developments such as national midterm swings, turnout surges, or candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make a Democratic upset unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$45,338終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the nomination without primary opposition in June 2026 for Montana's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The eastern Montana district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by Downing's 65.7% general-election margin in 2024, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. Democratic nominee Brian Miller advanced from a low-profile primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Late developments such as national midterm swings, turnout surges, or candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make a Democratic upset unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$45,338終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Troy Downing secured the nomination without primary opposition in June 2026 for Montana's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The eastern Montana district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by Downing's 65.7% general-election margin in 2024, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. Democratic nominee Brian Miller advanced from a low-profile primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Late developments such as national midterm swings, turnout surges, or candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning make a Democratic upset unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問